UK headline CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year in May, coming in 0.2 percentage points below the Bloomberg median estimate and 0.5 percentage points under the Bank of England’s April Monetary Policy Report projection. Core inflation, however, ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%, pointing to firmer underlying pressures even as the overall rate undershot forecasts.
The composition of the print showed stronger services and fuel inflation offset by softer food and goods prices. Services inflation rose by 0.5 percentage points to 3.7% year-on-year, which was still 0.2 percentage points below the BoE’s April MPR estimate. Within services, an ONS correction to last year’s Vehicle Excise Duty increase created a positive base effect that added 0.25 percentage points, while the reversal of Easter-related weakness in April airfares contributed 0.15 percentage points and transport by sea added just under 0.1 percentage points.
Signals Of Softening Inflation And Policy Implications
Given the May inflation data from today, June 17, 2026, we see a clear signal that underlying price pressures in the UK are softening. The headline CPI undershot expectations significantly, and the strength in services inflation appears temporary. This suggests the Bank of England’s path for future rate hikes is now less certain.
The drivers of the jump in services inflation, such as base effects from vehicle taxes and a rebound in airfares, are not signs of a persistently overheating economy. We should look past these technical factors and focus on the weakness in both food and goods prices. This underlying softness is more indicative of the true inflation trend.
Market Positioning And Currency Implications
Recent data supports this view, with the latest flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI for June dipping to 52.8 and wage growth figures from the ONS slowing to 3.9%. These figures, combined with the May CPI miss, paint a picture of an economy that is cooling. The market may be overestimating the central bank’s resolve to continue tightening policy.
Therefore, we believe positioning for lower future interest rates is the correct strategy for the coming weeks. This involves receiving fixed on interest rate swaps for the end of 2026, as current pricing looks too aggressive. Buying futures contracts tied to the SONIA rate for the Q4 2026 meetings also offers a direct way to benefit from a repricing of rate expectations.
This outlook will likely put downward pressure on the British Pound. Historically, currencies weaken when their respective central banks are perceived to be turning more dovish than their peers. Consequently, we see value in purchasing put options on GBP/USD, anticipating a decline in the exchange rate as rate hike expectations diminish.
