Recent G10 central bank decisions have left EUR/USD trapped in its established range, despite varied policy outcomes. Over the past week, three G10 central banks kept rates unchanged — the RBA, the Bank of Canada and the Riksbank — while two, the BOJ and the ECB, raised rates. Even so, the two rate-hikers sat in the middle of the G10 FX performance table for the week, pointing to limited follow-through in broader currency moves.
The euro is weighed down by a softer growth outlook, with the Eurozone seeing the deepest cuts to 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts versus any other region since the conflict began. Societe Generale expects EUR/USD to drift towards 1.12 over time rather than 1.20, but a new catalyst is still required to turn range trading into a clearer trend. It also frames short USD/JPY and short USD/SEK as trades that would benefit from a dovish outcome, while hawkish surprises would imply further EUR weakness.
EUR/USD Outlook Remains Rangebound but Skewed Lower
We see the EUR/USD pair as stuck in a range, but with a clear bias toward the downside in the weeks ahead. While recent central bank meetings have not provided a major shock, the underlying economic picture favors a weaker Euro. Our target remains a drift down towards the 1.1200 level from its current trading price around 1.1450.
The fundamental pressure comes from diverging growth outlooks, which has become more pronounced recently. The European Commission just cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the Euro area to 0.8%, citing weakness in German industrial output. This contrasts sharply with the United States, where growth expectations remain steadier near 1.9% following a solid May jobs report showing 210,000 new positions.
Trading Strategies and Catalysts to Watch
For derivative traders, this environment of a slow grind lower suggests selling option premium rather than buying it outright. Given the low market volatility, with the CVIX currency volatility index near 6.5, buying puts can be costly due to time decay. We believe selling out-of-the-money EUR/USD call spreads with expirations in late July or August is an effective way to position for this expected decline.
This strategy allows traders to collect premium while defining their risk, capitalizing on the pair’s inability to break higher. Historically, such periods of low volatility and clear growth divergence precede a steady, trend-like move rather than a sudden, sharp break. Therefore, we prefer strategies that profit from both the direction and the passage of time.
A catalyst, such as a surprise inflation print or a hawkish shift from the US Federal Reserve, would be needed to break the current calm. Until that happens, we will maintain a bearish bias and look for opportunities to sell into any short-term strength. Traders should monitor upcoming US inflation data closely as a potential trigger for increased momentum.
