US President Donald Trump said on Monday that an agreement with Iran had been signed, speaking after arriving in Evian, France, for a G7 meeting. He added that the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened, saying it was “completely opened” on Friday, and that oil prices were falling while stocks were rising.
Trump said the arrangement would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and would include “strong policing”. He also said he might or might not be involved in the signing, while Vice President JD Vance would attend. He said the deal text would be released sometime after Friday, with publication expected in the near term, and that there would be no sanctions relief for Iran until compliance requirements were met. He also referred to allies potentially assisting and to efforts to “straighten out” Lebanon.
Market Impact and Investment Strategy
We see this deal as a major de-risking event for global markets, fundamentally shifting the landscape for the coming weeks. The immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes a significant threat to global energy supplies. We will position for lower market volatility and a broad rally in risk assets.
The most direct impact is on crude oil, and we anticipate a continued sharp decline. About 21% of the world’s daily oil consumption passes through the Strait, so its guaranteed security removes a massive risk premium from the price. We are looking to short Brent crude futures, as prices could fall from their recent high of over $90 a barrel toward the $70-$75 range seen earlier this year.
Volatility and Caution in the Wake of the Agreement
This news should cause the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, to collapse. After trading in an elevated range near 21 for the past month due to geopolitical tensions, we expect it to break below 15. We are buying VIX put options to profit directly from this expected calming of market fears.
Lower energy costs act as a tax cut for consumers and businesses, so we are bullish on the broader stock market. Industries like airlines, shipping, and trucking, which have seen their margins squeezed by high fuel costs, are now prime targets for buying call options. Historically, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 4-5% in the three months following similar large drops in oil prices.
We must remain cautious as the full text of the agreement has not been released. The deal’s reliance on Iran’s future compliance for sanctions relief introduces an element of uncertainty. Therefore, we will primarily use defined-risk option strategies, like bull call spreads on indices, to protect against any sudden reversal if details of the deal prove disappointing.
