Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, with a 7–2 vote, compared with 8–1 at the 30 April meeting. It sees Megan Greene joining Huw Pill in backing a 25 bps rise, and markets fully pricing the first such hike in November. The firm’s projection has GBP/USD falling to 1.3100, set against a stronger US growth outlook relative to the UK.
Politics is also framed as a near-term risk for sterling. Thursday’s Makerfield by-election is cited as an event risk, with polls putting Andy Burnham ahead of Reform UK by 3 to 12 points. The scenario outlined includes a return to parliament and a potential leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while a Burnham-led Labour government is associated with higher spending and borrowing and a deterioration in UK fiscal credibility.
UK Outlook and Policy Challenges
We anticipate the Bank of England will maintain its policy rate at 4.75% at its next meeting, as the latest CPI data for May came in at a stubborn 3.1%, still well above the 2% target. This continued fight against inflation is occurring alongside stagnant economic growth, which we believe is a fundamentally bearish combination for the British Pound. The environment today feels similar to the difficult period in 2023-2024 when the Bank was forced to tighten policy into a slowing economy.
This weak UK outlook contrasts sharply with the more resilient US economy, where Q1 GDP growth was recently revised up to a solid 2.2% while UK growth was a meager 0.2%. For this reason, we expect GBP/USD, currently trading near 1.2550, to decline towards our target of 1.2200 over the next quarter. The continued rate differential and growth divergence should weigh on the pair.
Political Risks and GBP/USD Strategy
Political risks are also resurfacing and could accelerate any downward move in the Pound. Growing pressure on the government’s budget ahead of the Autumn Statement raises concerns about the UK’s fiscal credibility, especially with borrowing costs remaining elevated. Any signs of increased spending or unfunded tax cuts will likely be punished by markets.
Given this backdrop, we see opportunities in positioning for a weaker Pound in the coming weeks. We believe buying GBP/USD put options is a prudent strategy to express this view while managing risk. Traders could consider puts with a strike price around 1.2300 that expire in late September to capture potential downside.
