Nomura’s Global FX Strategy team is positioned long EUR/GBP, arguing that a more hawkish European Central Bank path relative to the Bank of England could push the cross higher. Their framework links EUR/GBP closely to front-end rate spreads, and they expect narrowing differentials plus UK political-fiscal risks to act as catalysts for a move towards 0.90 over the coming months.
The bank’s updated terminal-rate assumptions put the ECB at 3.00% versus the BoE at 3.50% in 2027, with one hike this year and two cuts next year. On that basis, they see the 2-year rate differential narrowing to below 100bp from 140bp, a shift they associate with upward pressure on EUR/GBP. UK domestic risks remain in focus ahead of a by-election on 18 June, while the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey on 11 June adds to uncertainty around the government and keeps attention on an increasingly tight fiscal backdrop.
Policy Divergence and Inflation Trends
We see a clear policy split forming between the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which should push the euro higher against the pound. Recent data from late May showed Eurozone inflation unexpectedly ticking up to 2.8%, while UK inflation moderated to 2.1%. This gives the ECB reason to maintain its hawkish stance while the BoE may consider a more cautious approach.
This policy divergence is already visible in the bond market, where the two-year rate spread between the UK and Germany has tightened to 125 basis points. As we expect this gap to narrow below 100 basis points in the coming months, we see a clear path for EUR/GBP to move towards the 0.90 level. This trend is gaining momentum and presents a key opportunity.
Political Uncertainty, Trading Strategies, and Historical Parallels
Adding to the pressure on sterling are the UK’s political jitters ahead of the by-election on June 18. Recent polling suggests a strong challenge to the Prime Minister’s leadership, creating uncertainty that is weighing on the pound. The resignation of the Defence Secretary yesterday only adds to the sense of instability and fiscal risk.
For derivative traders, this outlook supports buying three-month EUR/GBP call options with strike prices around 0.8850 to capture the expected upward move. A more conservative strategy would be to implement a bull call spread to lower the upfront cost while still profiting from a rise towards our 0.90 target. This allows traders to position for the upside with a defined risk.
This situation is reminiscent of the period following the 2016 Brexit referendum, when policy divergence and political uncertainty caused EUR/GBP to surge from 0.76 to above 0.88 in just a few months. History shows that when these factors align, the move in this currency pair can be swift and significant. We believe the current setup presents a similar dynamic.
