Brent crude rose towards USD 96 per barrel after renewed Israel–Iran hostilities prompted markets to reprice Middle East supply risk. Danske Bank’s research team linked the move to fading expectations of progress on a wider regional deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while also pointing to broader risk sentiment ahead of upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and European Central Bank (ECB) events.
Israel carried out overnight air strikes inside Iran after Tehran fired ballistic missiles at northern Israel on Sunday, described as the first such exchange since the April ceasefire; Iran’s attack followed Israeli strikes on Beirut earlier in the day. Brent was up about 3% to around USD 96 a barrel in morning trading, and it reached USD 96.5/bbl overnight as the escalation unfolded. US President Donald Trump said he had urged Israel not to respond militarily and said the flare-up would not derail a potential US–Iran agreement.
Market Anxiety And Volatility In Oil Prices
We see the surge in Brent crude towards $96 per barrel as a clear signal of heightened market anxiety. This geopolitical tension is directly inflating implied volatility in the oil options market. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has likely jumped above 45, a level not seen in months, making options premiums significantly more expensive.
The market is rightly concerned about the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption would have immediate and severe consequences for global supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 21% of the world’s daily petroleum consumption transits through this chokepoint. This fundamental risk justifies the current price premium and suggests prices could move much higher on any further escalation.
Trading Strategies, Historical Parallels, And Central Bank Risks
For traders, this environment makes buying long-dated call options an appealing strategy to capture further upside potential. However, given the high premiums, we are also considering strategies like long straddles, which would profit from a significant price move in either direction. The binary nature of the conflict—either de-escalation causing a price drop or further conflict sending prices over $100—supports a play on pure volatility.
We should remember historical precedents, such as the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which caused a near 20% intraday price surge. That spike was largely retraced within a couple of weeks as supply fears eased and strategic reserves were utilized. This suggests that while the immediate reaction is sharp, the rally could be short-lived if diplomatic efforts, like those mentioned by the US President, gain traction.
We must also watch the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and European Central Bank events closely. The current oil price surge will feed directly into inflation figures, potentially forcing central banks to maintain a hawkish stance. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could create a headwind for oil, as markets would price in slower economic growth and reduced future demand.
