Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $75.20 on Thursday, near two-week lows, amid mixed news on US-Iran negotiations. The move came after a Reuters report about uranium being kept in Iran, followed by a denial carried by Al Jazeera.
Price gains were limited by a firmer US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields, as expectations rose that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. Markets also focused on comments from US President Donald Trump that talks were in the “final stages”, alongside a warning that military action could resume without a deal.
On the daily chart, silver remained below the 20-period Bollinger SMA at $77.46, with the upper band near $86.89 and the lower band near $68.03. The RSI fell below 50 to 45.9, MACD stayed negative, and ADX was near 15.
Resistance was marked at $77.46, then $86.89 and $95.00. Support sat at $68.03, with a further level at $60.00 if that breaks.
We are seeing a familiar pattern in the silver market today, May 21, 2026, that reminds us of a similar setup back in 2025. At that time, a strong US dollar and high Treasury yields were putting a lid on silver prices, which were hovering around the $75 mark. Today’s conditions warrant a careful look at those past dynamics.
Just as we saw last year, the US Dollar Index is remaining firm above the 104 level, and US 10-year Treasury yields are elevated, currently sitting near 4.5%. These macroeconomic pressures are historically challenging for a yieldless asset like silver. The Federal Reserve’s current “higher for longer” stance on interest rates is fueling this environment, much like the rate hike expectations did in 2025.
However, unlike the bearish technical picture from last year, silver has recently experienced a powerful rally, breaking decisively above $30 per ounce for the first time in over a decade. This strength is largely driven by surging industrial demand, particularly for solar panel production, and strong physical investment buying from China. This creates a tense standoff between bullish momentum and bearish macroeconomic fundamentals.
For traders using derivatives, this suggests that outright shorting via futures is risky given the powerful underlying trend. A more prudent approach for the coming weeks would be to buy out-of-the-money put options. This strategy allows for continued participation in the upside while setting a clear, defined risk level if the weight of high interest rates and a strong dollar triggers a sharp correction.
The current market also hints at rising volatility, with the Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) showing increased activity. This environment makes strategies like long straddles appealing, as they can profit from a significant price swing in either direction. Such a position would benefit whether the industrial demand narrative pushes prices toward $35 or if macroeconomic headwinds force a retreat back below $28.
We are also closely watching the Gold/Silver ratio, which has recently compressed to around 77 after spending much of the last year above 85. This indicates silver is outperforming gold, but a reversal of this trend could be a key early warning sign. A move back toward 80 in the ratio would signal that the bearish factors we saw in 2025 are starting to take control again.
