US weekly API crude oil stocks fell by 9.1 million barrels for the week ending 15 May. The expected change was a fall of 3.4 million barrels.
The reported crude oil stock draw of 9.1 million barrels is a significant bullish indicator, nearly three times the market’s expectation. This suggests a much tighter supply-demand balance than we had previously modeled. We should therefore anticipate upward pressure on crude oil prices in the immediate term.
Inventory Data Confirms Bullish Setup
This API data was followed by the official EIA report confirming a large draw of 7.8 million barrels, which has already helped push WTI prices above $85 a barrel. This inventory drop coincides with recent data showing China’s oil imports in April 2026 rose 4.5% year-over-year, signaling strengthening global demand. The summer driving season is also approaching, with US gasoline demand already tracking 2% higher than at this same point last year.
For the coming weeks, we should consider buying near-term call options to capitalize on this expected price increase. July and August WTI call options with strike prices in the $90 to $95 range offer a good risk-reward profile. This allows us to leverage the potential upside while defining our maximum loss to the premium paid.
Implied volatility has risen on the back of this news, making options more expensive. To offset this, we could implement bull call spreads by buying a lower-strike call and simultaneously selling a higher-strike call. This strategy lowers the upfront cost and is effective if we anticipate a steady, but not explosive, rise in price.
When we look back at the market in 2025, we saw a similar pattern where a series of unexpected inventory draws in the second quarter preceded a sharp summer rally of over 15%. The current setup feels familiar, suggesting this trend could have legs. We must act on this pattern before the market fully prices in a prolonged supply deficit.
Key Risks And Watch Items
Looking ahead, we must monitor the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and weekly US production figures for any signs that could counter this bullish narrative. However, the immediate data strongly suggests positioning for higher oil prices. We should adjust our strategies if we see US rig counts increase substantially or hear hints of OPEC+ easing its production cuts.
