The semiconductor market is described as moving away from early GPU-led AI growth towards infrastructure-focused companies such as Intel and AMD. The text uses Elliott Wave analysis to frame Intel’s price action and rally structure.
Intel’s rally from 2009 peaked at $59.59 in April 2019. A later expanded flat correction retraced more than 76.4% of that rise, with wave II stated as ending in April 2025, followed by a move of over 700%.
A 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the wave I–II move is given at 144.07 as a target area for wave III. The daily wave levels listed are: $43.28 for wave ((1)), $34.95 for wave ((2)), $54.60 for wave (1) of ((3)), $40.63 for wave (2) of ((3)), and $132.75 for wave (3) of ((3)).
For 2026 year-to-date performance, Intel is up 240% and ranked second. Micron is up 750%, while NVDA is up 15%.
Given the current market dynamics on May 19, 2026, we see a clear rotation out of first-wave AI leaders and into foundational semiconductor plays. Looking back, Nvidia’s slowing growth was confirmed in its Q1 2026 earnings report, where data center revenue growth fell to just 25% year-over-year, a stark contrast to the triple-digit growth seen through 2024 and 2025. This slowdown, combined with ongoing China sales restrictions, justifies its mere 15% year-to-date gain and suggests traders should temper bullish expectations.
For Intel, the analysis indicates we are in a temporary pullback within a much larger upward trend. This wave (4) dip should be viewed as a strategic entry point for bullish positions before the next leg higher. The 700% rally since the April 2025 lows is supported by fundamental wins, such as the landmark $50 billion cloud contract Intel’s foundry division secured in late 2025.
Derivative traders should consider using this pullback to structure new long positions in Intel. We are watching for this correction to stabilize, potentially creating a base from which the next rally towards the $144 target can launch. Purchasing call options or bull call spreads with expirations in Q3 2026 would provide enough time to capture this anticipated move higher.
The broader market confirms this shift, with Micron’s astonishing 750% year-to-date rally highlighting the immense demand for essential AI components like its next-generation HBM memory. This move underscores the market’s focus on the picks and shovels of the AI build-out rather than the initial GPU leaders. For traders holding Nvidia, implementing covered call strategies could be a prudent way to generate income while the stock consolidates.
