WTI futures on NYMEX fell 2.5% to about $92.20 during Friday’s European session. The move followed a month-long US–Iran ceasefire that remained in place after President Donald Trump said Thursday’s strikes near the Strait of Hormuz were not meant to restart the war.
Trump told ABC News the strike was “just a love tap” and said the ceasefire was still in effect. He also repeated that the US could attack Iran again if it does not agree to a deal.
Us Iran Ceasefire And Market Reaction
Iran has not responded to a one-page US memorandum of understanding that proposes peace terms. The proposal includes limits on Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear aims.
Markets are watching US Nonfarm Payrolls for April, due at 12:30 GMT. The data may affect expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
WTI traded below the 20-day EMA of $95.31, with the RSI at 47.54. Resistance sits at $95.31, and a daily close above it could open a move towards $100.
Support includes the May 6 low at $86.92 and the April 20 low near $85.00. Below $85.00, the next level cited is the April 17 low of $78.88.
Technical Levels And Trading Focus
WTI is a light, sweet US crude priced via the Cushing hub, a global benchmark. Prices can be influenced by supply and demand, US dollar moves, OPEC decisions, and API and EIA inventory reports, which are within 1% of each other 75% of the time.
We remember how the oil price reacted last year, in 2025, when a brief US-Iran conflict was dismissed as a “love tap.” The price of WTI dropped over 2.5% in a single session on that news, showing how quickly geopolitical relief can create selling pressure. That event serves as a reminder of the market’s sensitivity to de-escalation in the Middle East.
Today, on May 8, 2026, the primary concern is not military conflict but economic stability and its effect on demand. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data for April showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 240,000 jobs, which has strengthened the US Dollar. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which typically dampens global demand.
This economic headwind is compounded by recent supply data, as last week’s EIA report showed an unexpected inventory build of 2.1 million barrels. This suggests that production is outpacing current consumption, putting further downward pressure on prices. In contrast to last year’s supply fears, the market now appears to be well-supplied.
Looking at the current charts, WTI is trading near $78.50, well below its 20-day exponential moving average of around $81.00. This moving average is now acting as significant resistance, suggesting that any rallies toward that level will likely attract sellers. The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 40, indicating bearish momentum without being deeply oversold.
For derivative traders, this setup suggests considering bearish strategies in the coming weeks. Buying put options with a strike price around $75.00 could offer a good risk-to-reward profile, capitalizing on potential further downside. Alternatively, traders could look to sell call credit spreads above the $81.00 resistance level to collect premium while betting that prices will remain capped.
Key support to watch is the recent low around $77.20, and a break below that could accelerate a move toward the $75.00 level. We saw back in early 2025 how quickly prices could slide from $92 down towards $85 once a key level was breached. A similar dynamic could play out now if the fundamental picture of a strong dollar and rising inventories does not change.
