AUD/USD’s recent rise stalled below 0.7100, and the pair is now seen trading in a range. The expected near-term band is 0.7000 to 0.7080.
A test of 0.7135 is still possible in the coming weeks if AUD/USD stays above 0.6970. Support near 0.7000 is described as firm.
Near Term Range Outlook
Over a 1–3 month horizon, the technical view still points to a weaker AUD/USD. If the 0.6850/0.6870 support area breaks, it could open a move down towards 0.6765.
The note referenced a 08 Apr level of 0.7075 and a 27 Mar 2026 level of 0.6885. The article states it was made with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
With the Aussie’s rally looking overdone, we see the current price action as a consolidation phase. This suggests traders could use options strategies like short strangles, selling calls around 0.7100 and puts around 0.7000, to capitalize on the expected range-bound movement. The goal here is to collect premium while the pair lacks a clear directional catalyst.
This view is supported by recent economic data, which creates uncertainty for the Reserve Bank of Australia. After last hiking rates in November 2025, the latest inflation figures for the first quarter of 2026 cooled slightly to 3.8%, making another hike less likely. This policy ambiguity from the RBA pins the currency in place for now.
Central Bank Policy Divergence
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve remains firm, holding its rate at 5.50% in its March 2026 meeting while signaling a “higher for longer” stance. Recent US jobs data continues to be robust, with last month’s report showing another 250,000 jobs added. This policy divergence strongly favors the US dollar over the Australian dollar in the medium term.
For the coming weeks, the key level to watch is 0.6970, which must hold to keep any chance of a test towards 0.7135 alive. A break below this support would be our signal that the consolidation phase is ending and the next leg down is beginning. We would view any strength toward 0.7135 as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions.
Given the broader technical picture, we believe the path of least resistance is lower over the next one to three months. We are looking at buying longer-dated put options with June or July 2026 expiries, targeting a move below the 0.6850 support zone. Looking back, we saw a similar setup in mid-2025 where a period of range trading preceded a significant decline, and we expect history may repeat itself.
