VT 
Oil prices staged a strong recovery on Friday, with WTI crude oil trending bullish to $60.27 per barrel. The move comes as traders brace for U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, set to take effect on 21 November, which could temporarily tighten global supply.
Reports indicate that Lukoil PJSC has begun cutting staff across its global trading operations just days before the measures are implemented, an early signal that sanctions could disrupt export logistics.
Analysts estimate that nearly one-third of the Russian seaborne oil exports could face delays or be stranded in transit due to rerouting and slower port clearances. The situation has been worsened by its two largest buyers temporarily halting new cargo purchases amid legal and payment uncertainties.
Oversupply Concerns Cap Gains
Despite the rebound, bearish sentiment lingers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned this week that global oil supply continues to outpace demand, projecting a surplus of 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million bpd in 2026.
While consumption growth is expected to continue through 2050, the near-term glut reflects higher production from the U.S. and OPEC members. The OPEC+ also reported a Q3 surplus, highlighting that recent production increases have offset disruptions elsewhere.
Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose for a second consecutive week, amplifying short-term downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices have rebounded to around $60.27, climbing nearly 2.9% after testing support near the $55 zone earlier this month.
The daily chart shows that momentum has turned mildly bullish in the short term, with prices reclaiming the 5-day moving average and attempting to cross the 10- and 30-day MAs, which could indicate an early-stage trend reversal if sustained.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has flipped slightly positive, hinting at strengthening buying pressure following weeks of consolidation.
The recovery reflects improving sentiment after recent reports suggested OPEC+ may discuss deeper production cuts at its upcoming meeting, amid signs of weakening demand in China and high inventory levels in the U.S.
Additionally, energy markets reacted positively to easing tensions in the Trump–Xi trade narrative, which reduced fears of an immediate slowdown in global trade flows.
Still, caution remains, as the broader macro backdrop continues to point to sluggish consumption and resilient supply.
For now, traders should watch for resistance around $62.50–$63.00, a zone that previously capped several recovery attempts.
A decisive break above this region could open the door toward $66, while failure to hold above $59.50 might reintroduce downward pressure. With volatility likely to pick up ahead U.S. inflation and inventory data next week, oil may remain in a choppy but gradually strengthening phase.
Cautious Forecast
If U.S. sanctions on Lukoil create measurable export delays, WTI could extend gains toward $62.00 in the near term. However, confirmation of rising U.S. stockpiles or further IEA demand downgrades could trigger renewed selling toward $58.50.
The broader trend remains range-bound as traders balance near-term supply disruptions against persistent oversupply signals from OPEC and the IEA.
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