VT 
EUR/USD continues to trade within a bullish framework, hovering 1.1550 to 1.1600 after a modest pullback from recent highs. While short-term momentum indicators like RSI are easing, the broader trend remains intact with dip-buying interest expected near key support at 1.1535.
Fed Caution and EU Budget Friction
The Federal Reserve has signaled a more cautious stance on rate cuts, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for “greater confidence” in inflation returning to target before easing further. This has tempered expectations for aggressive monetary support, keeping the dollar relatively firm despite softening data.
In Europe, political tensions around the European Union 2026 budget proposal have resurfaced, with several member states pushing back on increased spending allocations. This has raised concerns about fiscal cohesion and long-term growth prospects, although European Central Bank (ECB) officials have maintained a neutral tone, reiterating that current policy is “appropriately restrictive.”
Together, these factors have contributed to choppy EUR/USD price action, with the euro supported by a resilient labor market and improving sentiment, but capped by external headwinds and cautious central bank guidance.
EURUSD Technical Analysis: Consolidation Within Bullish Structure
EUR/USD remains in a bullish consolidation phase, with price action favoring tactical accumulation near support.
- Support: 1.1535, 1.1500 followed by the bearish trigger zone of 1.1460
- Resistance: 1.1615 and 1.1635
- Bullish Bias: Buy dips near 1.1535, targetting 1.1615 and 1.1635. Maintain stops below 1.1500.
- Bearish Setup: Short only if price breaks and holds below 1.1500, looking out for 1.1460. Use tight stops above 1.1535.
- Range Play: Accumulate near 1.1535 and reduce exposure near 1.1635. Trade the range until a breakout confirms direction.
Bullish Bias Intact, But Momentum Slowing
EUR/USD remains supported by technical structure and selective euro strength, but momentum is fading as macro uncertainty builds. Traders should monitor Fed commentary, EU fiscal headlines, and inflation data for clues on directional bias.
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