VT 
The Nasdaq 100 extended modest gains on Friday, rising 0.2% to 25,164.88, as investors balanced optimism about artificial intelligence (AI) growth with growing concerns over the sustainability of technology valuations.
The rally, largely driven by the “Magnificent Seven” and their AI-linked ventures, is now facing scrutiny from market strategists who see parallels to the late-1990s dot-com boom.
Analysts warn that the heavy dependence on AI spending, particularly from OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle, is creating both strong momentum and significant systemic risk.
The trillion-dollar question on AI investment plan
At the centre of the current market debate is OpenAI’s trillion-dollar investment plan, an ambitious effort to build 16 gigawatts of data centres worldwide and expand its cloud infrastructure through partnerships with Oracle and Nvidia.
The sheer scale exceeds any historic capital expenditure cycle, raising questions about both financing feasibility and power supply constraints.
Estimates suggest that OpenAI’s commitments total nearly $1 trillion, which equals about 3.4% of U.S. GDP and around one-quarter of all non-residential private investment recorded in 2024.
Around $100 billion of that total is expected to come from Nvidia and other partners, but analysts question how the remaining $800 billion will be financed through cash flow, equity, or debt markets.
Any of these paths would represent unprecedented levels of fundraising in corporate history.
Analysts warn that the impact of OpenAI failing to secure required funding could ripple through the entire AI supply chain.
Tech and AI market context
Despite these concerns, the Nasdaq 100 remains close to record highs. Resilient earnings from major technology firms and persistent investor appetite for growth continue to provide support.
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant narrative in markets, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta collectively expected to spend around $335 billion this year on AI-related capital expenditure.
However, the concentration of market value within a handful of companies highlights potential vulnerability if any disruption occurs in the AI financing cycle.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 currently stands near 29 times, which is significantly higher than its 10-year average, pointing to elevated valuation risk.
Technical analysis: NAS100
The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) index is trading around 25,164.88, up 0.20% on the day, as technology stocks continue to show resilience despite broader market caution.
The tech-heavy benchmark remains near record highs, driven by sustained investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor sectors, while recent signs of cooling inflation have also lent support to equity sentiment.
From a technical perspective, NAS100 maintains a strong bullish structure. The index is comfortably trading above its 5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages, reflecting healthy trend alignment across short- and medium-term indicators.
The MACD remains in positive territory, though its histogram shows modest weakening, hinting that upward momentum may plateau after the long stretch of gains since mid-2025.
Cautious outlook on tech stocks
While the broader uptrend remains intact, the market’s growing reliance on AI-related investment and speculative expectations surrounding OpenAI’s expansion make it more fragile.
Any delay in funding or shift in monetary policy that reduces liquidity could lead to a correction.
For now, traders are watching upcoming earnings from major AI players and economic data that may influence Federal Reserve rate expectations. These will be key in determining whether the current rally is supported by fundamentals or driven by speculation.
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