VT 
Today is a pivotal day as the markets brace for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest meeting and rate‑decision. Speculation is high over whether the Fed will cut rates (likely by 25 basis points) and how dovish its messaging has been. Ripple effect is expected across the board, including but not limited to currencies, equities and commodities. With inflation cooling but labour market showing mixed signals, the announcements and commentary today could set the tone for the rest of Q4.
KEY INDICATORS
Fed Meeting & Rate Cut Expectations
- The consensus is for a 25 bps cut, bringing the federal funds rate down between 4.00% to 4.25%.
- Investors are focused on Fed Chair Powell’s comments.
- The U.S. dollar is weak ahead of the Fed decision.
- Fed governance and its independence are under attention.
Oil
- Oil prices remain steady driven by drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries.
- A drop in crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. adds support to oil prices.
Equities
- Major stocks like Nvidia, Meta and Palantir are being watched for buy entries.
- The broader market is largely flat or mixed, waiting for the Fed meeting to provide clearer direction.
MARKET MOVERS
USD/JPY
- Primary trend: USD/JPY is struggling to move above the 147.50–147.90 resistance zone.
- Bullish case: Pushed above 147.90 with strength, potential near term targets are 148.50 and 149.35.
- Bearish case: A move to the 146.20-146.57 support zone could lead to retests at 146.00 and 144.42.
- Risk management: Use smaller position sizes or reduced leverage, also watch for U.S. rate cut expectations and Powell’s tone.
XAU/USD
- Primary trend: Gold recently broke above the $3,700 mark, reaching record highs just over $3,702.
- Bullish case: If momentum continues after the Fed decision, gold could push toward $3,780-$3,800.
- Bearish case: Support can be found in the $3,660-$3,670 zone, with deeper support toward $3,600.
- Risk management: Keep stops tight because of likely volatility around the Fed decision while keeping a watch on Fed interest rate decision as well as profit-taking after strong gains.
NEWS HEADLINES
- The Fed rate decision is in focus, with signals for further easing widely expected
- Trump-Modi diplomacy created unexpected positive sentiment, potentially easing trade tensions.
- The U.S. dollar remains under pressure against major currencies such as Euros, Japanese yen and Australian dollar
- Traders are watching closely for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone for clues on future easing.
- Gold has brushed above $3,700/oz, as the weaker dollar and rate cut expectations boost safe-haven demand.
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