Geopolitical tensions continue to cast a shadow over global markets, leaving investors cautious and risk appetite subdued. Amid the uncertainty, the Nasdaq 100 is showing early signs of recovery, with technical indicators pointing to a potential short-term rebound.

Nasdaq 100 rebounds amid tension

The Nasdaq 100 posted a modest recovery in early Friday trade, bouncing from an intraday low of 21,439.75 to finish the session around 21,663.50.

After opening flat and initially extending overnight losses, the tech-heavy index found some stability as the MACD histogram flipped into positive territory and prices climbed above short-term 15-minute moving averages.

This rebound unfolded amid a cautious mood across Asian markets, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Traders remained wary as Israel continued targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

With the conflict now entering its second week and no diplomatic resolution in sight, uncertainty remained elevated.

Adding to market jitters, reports suggest former President Donald Trump has given himself a two-week window to consider potential US military intervention.

This pattern echoes previous foreign policy flashpoints and has introduced fresh ambiguity into global risk sentiment.

Overnight, Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% during Asian trading hours, as traders reacted to headlines in the absence of US market activity due to the Juneteenth holiday.

Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 appears to be staging a rebound after finding support at the 21,439.75 level.

The index had previously peaked near 21,880.55 on 19 June before entering a descending channel, characterised by lower highs and lower lows ‒ signalling short-term bearish momentum.

Picture: Bulls regain footing after sharp Nasdaq dip, as seen on the VT Markets app.

Friday’s recovery saw the index push above both the 5 and 10-period exponential moving averages, supported by rising price momentum.

The MACD indicator has printed a bullish crossover from oversold levels, with a strong green histogram that has started to flatten ‒ indicating that early upside momentum may be losing steam.

Currently, the Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is testing the 21,660–21,680 resistance zone, which previously served as a consolidation area during the recent decline.

A decisive move above 21,712 ‒ the session’s intraday high ‒ could open the door for a push towards the 21,800 level.

However, failure to clear this barrier may trigger a pullback towards 21,580 or even 21,540, where the rising 30 EMA is beginning to offer technical support.

A breakout above 21,712 could re-ignite bullish sentiment, while a drop below 21,500 would likely invite renewed selling pressure ‒ particularly if geopolitical developments in the Middle East worsen.

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