CURRENCIES:

Key Highlights:

• The US dollar shows uncertainty with market anticipation of pivotal US data.
• Core PCE data release on Thursday is in the spotlight, influencing investor focus.
• Analysis includes a detailed technical perspective on EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.

Trading Opportunities:

• Diego Colman recommends checking the free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast.

Market Dynamics and Predictions:

• The US dollar’s movement was minimal, with mixed responses from US Treasury yields.
• Market participants are cautious, waiting for the core PCE deflator data.
• Expected January core PCE rise of 0.4% month-on-month, with a slight decrease in the annual rate from 2.9% to 2.8%.

Inflation and Interest Rates:

• Concerns of higher than expected CPI and PPI could mirror in the PCE report, affecting inflation expectations.
• A higher inflation figure may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, impacting bond yields and potentially strengthening the US dollar.

STOCK MARKET:

• Wall Street’s optimism grows as the S&P 500 exceeds 5,000 points, with strategists predicting a quicker climb to the next 1,000 points.
• Barclays raises its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,300, up from 4,800, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and a robust US economy.

Bull Case Scenario:

• Barclays suggests a potential rise to 6,050 for the S&P 500 if Big Tech’s earnings outshine expectations.
• The analysis sees a tilt toward bullish outcomes, forecasting economic growth over a mild recession.

Key Factors:

• Continued success in Big Tech and a rebound in other sectors’ earnings could propel the S&P 500 to new heights.
• Krishna from Barclays anticipates the S&P 500 could reach 6,050, based on $252 earnings per share.

Similar Predictions:

• Capital Economics and Yardeni Research share optimistic views, with targets of 6,000 by 2025 and 6,500 by 2026 respectively.
• Ed Yardeni emphasizes the US economy’s productivity growth and tech advancements as major drivers.

Market Attractiveness:

• The US market’s standout performance, especially compared to China, is highlighted as a key investment allure.
• Yardeni stresses the role of productivity and technological innovation in fuelling market gains.

AI’s Impact and Bubble Dynamics:

• John Higgins of Capital Economics links the S&P 500’s potential to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025 to the AI technology bubble.
• The current market bubble, driven by AI, is likened to the dot-com era but with significant room for growth

Start your CFD Shares Trading journey with VT Markets now!

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

CURRENCIES:

• The DXY index, which measures the US dollar’s performance, showed limited movement on Monday despite a slight increase in US Treasury yields.
• Investors are adopting a cautious approach in anticipation of Thursday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator release, a critical inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve.
• January’s core PCE is anticipated to rise by 0.4% from December, potentially reducing the annual rate from 2.9% to 2.8%, indicating a modest yet positive development.
• There’s a possibility that the actual figures could exceed expectations, mirroring recent trends seen in CPI and PPI reports, which could impact traders’ outlooks.

Upcoming US PCE Report Analysis:

• An unexpected increase in the PCE data might lead to higher interest rate expectations, suggesting a delayed start or smaller reductions in the easing cycle by policymakers.
• Such a scenario would likely result in higher US Treasury yields, benefiting the US dollar.

Technical Analysis of USD Currency Pairs:

• The latter part of the article shifts focus to the technical analysis of EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY currency pairs.
• It will explore market sentiment and pinpoint crucial support and resistance levels that may influence the pairs’ movements in the near future.

STOCK MARKET:

Market Performance:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) decreased by 0.2%.
• The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped by 0.4% after reaching new highs last week.
• The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) experienced a 0.1% decline, following a strong performance in tech stocks.

Inflation Data Anticipation:

• Investors are on edge as they await new inflation figures that could challenge the recent stock market rally, particularly after Nvidia’s (NVDA) impressive results.
• Concerns are mounting over a potential surprise in the upcoming Thursday PCE index report, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, especially after a higher-than-expected CPI report earlier in February led to market volatility.

Economic Indicators and Corporate Results:

• This week’s inflation report is a key focus, alongside updates on consumer and manufacturing sectors, which will provide insights into the US economy’s condition.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is nearing a $1 trillion market valuation following a record annual profit, with Warren Buffett highlighting the company’s durability and acknowledging Charlie Munger’s contributions.
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) shares surged 6% after announcing a dividend increase and surpassing fourth-quarter sales forecasts.
• Coinbase (COIN) shares rose 16% as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remained above $54,000, reflecting positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Start your CFD Shares Trading journey with VT Markets now!

CURRENCIES:

• Market confidence surged, led by Nvidia’s strong Q1 2024 forecast.
• Nvidia’s success propelled the S&P 500 to record highs; Japanese index topped after 34 years.
• Gold prices climbed, and the USD sought equilibrium amidst positive market sentiments.
• Anticipated January PCE inflation results could prompt continued USD decline and boost gold.
• Sterling remained strong with minimal impactful data expected to affect its position.
• The Euro’s rally against major G7 currencies may be losing momentum as the week ended.

STOCK MARKET:

Economic data: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (-27.4 previously); New home sales, January (684,000 annualized rate expected, 664,000 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, January (+3% expected, +8% previously)

Earnings: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Freshpet (FRPT), Hims & Hers (HIMS), iRobot (IRBT), Workday (WDAY), Zoom (ZM)

• Focus on new inflation data this week, particularly the PCE index reading on Thursday.
• S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs, with about 1% weekly gains.
• Nasdaq Composite also up, with a 0.6% increase.
• Upcoming inflation data could challenge recent stock market highs.
• Consumer confidence, manufacturing updates, and earnings from Salesforce, Lowe’s, Macy’s, Okta, and Best Buy are anticipated.
• A previous CPI report caused a market sell-off; a similar reaction might occur with the PCE inflation report.
• Economists expect January’s “core” PCE at 2.4% annually and 0.4% monthly, signaling potential inflation concerns.
• Market now anticipates three interest rate cuts in 2024, adjusting from previous expectations.
• Retail sector earnings in focus, with consumer spending trends under examination.
• Federal Reserve’s latest decision keeps interest rates unchanged.
• Citi’s analysis suggests the market hasn’t reached “euphoria” levels yet, indicating potential for further growth.

Start your CFD Shares Trading journey with VT Markets now!

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.

As we approach the end of February 2024, the financial world turns its focus towards a series of crucial economic updates slated for release. These reports, spanning from Japan’s inflation rates to the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States, are poised to provide fresh insights into the global economic landscape. Among these, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement stands out as a particularly significant event. Here’s what to expect in the week ahead:

February 27, 2024: Japan’s inflation rate 

The annual inflation rate in Japan has seen a decrease, landing at 2.6% in December 2023, down from 2.8% the previous month. This marks the lowest inflation rate since July 2022. Analysts are now eyeing a further drop to 2.1% for January 2024, with the data expected to be unveiled on 27 February. This anticipated decrease could signal easing inflationary pressures within the Japanese economy, offering a glimpse into the country’s current economic health.

February 27, 2024: US durable goods orders

In the United States, new orders for manufactured durable goods showed no significant change in December 2023, a stark contrast to the 5.5% rise observed in November. The forecast for January 2024 is less optimistic, with analysts predicting a 4.5% decline. Set to be released on 27 February, this data could reflect the changing dynamics in U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence.

February 28, 2024: Australia’s CPI 

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key indicator of inflation, increased by 3.4% in the year to December 2023, a slowdown from the 4.3% climb seen in November. Projections suggest a slight easing to 3.2% for January 2024, with the figures due on 28 February. A moderation in CPI growth may indicate that inflationary pressures are beginning to stabilise in Australia.

February 28, 2024: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) previously held its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% during its November meeting. This pause, consistent for the fourth consecutive time, met market expectations. Analysts widely anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain the OCR at 5.5% in its upcoming 28 February meeting. The decision is keenly awaited, as it could signal the central bank’s outlook on New Zealand’s economic conditions and inflationary trends.

February 29, 2024: Canada’s GDP 

Canada’s GDP growth for November exceeded expectations, registering a 0.2% increase. This improvement followed three months of stagnant growth. The forecast for December 2023 points to a further rise of 0.3%, with the announcement scheduled for 29 February. A consecutive growth increment would signify a strengthening in the Canadian economy’s recovery momentum.

February 29, 2024: US core PCE price index

The core PCE price index in the US, an important measure of inflation that excludes food and energy costs, experienced a slight uptick of 0.2% in December 2023. Analysts are now expecting a more pronounced increase of 0.4% for January 2024, with data due on 29 February. This anticipated growth could reflect persisting inflationary pressures within the core sectors of the U.S. economy.

March 1, 2024: US ISM manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States showed signs of improvement in January 2024, reaching 49.1 from 47.1 in December, marking the highest level since October 2022. The forecast for February remains optimistic, with analysts predicting the index to hold at 49.1. The upcoming release on 1 March will be closely watched as an indicator of the health and direction of the U.S. manufacturing sector.