Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Global oil demand is forecasted to increase by 1.1 mb/d in 2024 and 1.2 mb/d in 2025, with supply expected to grow by 580 kb/d in 2024 and 1.8 mb/d in 2025.
Brent crude futures dropped from $91 to $83 per barrel, influenced by easing geopolitical concerns and a softer economic outlook.
Refinery margins have declined across all regions, and global oil inventories surged by 34.6 million barrels (mb) in March, with further increases anticipated.
The OPEC+ meeting in June will address production policies, with a balanced market expected in 2025, driven by supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries.
As we approach the end of 2024, the oil market remains dynamic, influenced by various factors including supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and economic conditions. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the oil market.
Global Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics
Global oil demand is forecasted to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, a decrease of 140 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) from previous estimates, primarily due to weaker-than-expected deliveries in Europe, causing a contraction in OECD demand in the first quarter. In 2025, the growth rate is anticipated to remain steady, with an increase of 1.8 mb/d, slightly exceeding the 2024 growth rate.
Meanwhile, global oil supply in 2024 is expected to increase by 580 thousand barrels per day (kb/d), reaching a record 102.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This growth is fueled by a 1.4 mb/d rise in non-OPEC+ output, while OPEC+ production is predicted to decrease by 840 kb/d due to voluntary cuts.
In 2025, global oil supply is projected to grow by 1.8 mb/d, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing an additional 1.4 mb/d. This marks a reversal from the current year’s decline in OPEC+ output, which is expected to increase by 330 kb/d next year.
Market Conditions and Price Trends
Refinery margins and inventory levels:
Global refinery margins have decreased across all regions due to weaker-than-expected demand growth, leading to a prominent drop in middle distillate cracks and reduced throughput levels. In March, global oil inventories surged by 34.6 million barrels (mb), primarily driven by an increase in oil on water.
However, land stocks fell by 5.1 mb, reaching their lowest level since at least 2016. Preliminary data indicates that global oil stocks continued to rise in April.
Price movement and trends:
Brent crude futures have decreased from a six-month high of over $91 per barrel in early April to approximately $83 per barrel. This decline is primarily due to easing concerns about a broader Middle East conflict and a softer macroeconomic outlook.
Furthermore, benchmark oil prices experienced a sharp correction in April and early May, driven by worries about the global economy and oil demand, as well as progress towards a truce in Gaza.
This sell-off was particularly severe in middle distillate markets, where diesel and jet fuel cracks collapsed.
European Diesel Market Faces Decline and Market Impact
The European diesel market has faced a notable decline due to weak industrial activity and a mild winter, leading to a substantial drop in gasoil consumption.
In 2023, European gasoil demand decreased by 210 kb/d and further declined by 140 kb/d year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024.
This reduction in diesel deliveries, combined with weak demand in the United States, tipped OECD oil demand into contraction for the first quarter. Consequently, global oil demand projections have been revised downward.
OPEC+ Production Policy and Future Outlook
OPEC+ ministers scheduled to meet in Vienna on June 1 to discuss production policy for the remainder of the year.
Despite recent demand weakness, current balances indicate a call on OPEC+ crude oil at around 42 mb/d in the second half of the year, which is approximately 700 kb/d above its April output.
Looking ahead to 2025, the market is expected to be more balanced. Even if OPEC+ maintains voluntary production cuts, global oil supply could increase by 1.8 mb/d, driven by non-OPEC+ output expansions in the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil. Understanding these dynamics is vital for anticipating market shifts in the coming years.
Inventory Management
Global oil inventories and their management will be crucial in maintaining market stability. Preliminary data shows further stock builds in April, indicating a need for careful monitoring to avoid renewed market volatility.
Effective inventory management will help balance supply and demand, ensuring that any sudden changes in production or consumption do not lead to key disruptions in the market.
As global dynamics shift, close attention to inventory levels will be essential in supporting steady market conditions and preventing unexpected fluctuations.
2024-2025 Oil Market Balances Supply with Geopolitical Uncertainties
The oil market outlook for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 suggests a cautious yet optimistic scenario. While demand growth has been revised downward for 2024, supply adjustments and inventory management are expected to balance the market.
Key factors to watch include OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical developments, and economic conditions that could influence both demand and prices.
Traders and investors should remain vigilant, leveraging detailed market data and forecasts to navigate this complex landscape effectively.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
The 2024 global stock market downturn has sent shockwaves through financial circles worldwide. In just three weeks, approximately USD 6.4 trillion has been wiped off, and Monday’s decline stunned even the most experienced traders.
With major indices like the Nasdaq and Nikkei 225 experiencing significant drops, understanding what led to this downturn is crucial. This article aims to demystify the events of the market downturn, providing clear and practical insights to help everyday investors navigate these turbulent times.
What happened?
In early August 2024, global stock markets experienced a significant crash driven by fears of an impending recession.
The downturn began on Monday, August 5, triggered by disappointing earnings reports and a weak July jobs report. Major indices fell sharply: the S&P 500 dropped 2.9%, the Nasdaq 4.5%, and the Euro Stoxx 2.7%.
Asian markets fared even worse, with the Nikkei plummeting 12.4%, Taiwan’s TAIEX falling 8.4%, and South Korea’s KOSPI decreasing 8.8%. Australia’s ASX 200 closed 3.7% lower, marking its largest one-day drop since May 2020.
The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged to multi-year highs of 65.7, only surpassed by the peaks of 96.4 during the 2008 financial crisis and 85.5 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Key catalysts
Several factors combined to create this perfect storm in the global markets:
1. Poor earnings reports
The collapse was partly triggered by disappointing earnings reports from major companies like Amazon, which missed revenue estimates by USD 1 billion, and Intel, whose earnings per share plummeted by 30% compared to the previous quarter. These reports not only fell short of market expectations but also highlighted broader economic weaknesses.
2. Weak economic indicators
A weak July jobs report further fuelled recession fears. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, significantly below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions. This suggests that the economy might be cooling down faster than anticipated.
3. Interest rate changes
Japan’s surprise interest rate hike played a crucial role in the market turmoil. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 15 basis points, which led to the unwinding of the popular yen carry trade. This move sent shockwaves through the global financial markets, contributing significantly to the sell-off. The sell-off in Japanese markets intensified on Friday, 2 August, with the TOPIX index dropping by 6.14% and falling 13.4% from its peak on 11 July. Foreign investors pulled nearly USD 5 billion out of Japanese stocks over the last two weeks of July, and domestic funds also became net sellers of their own market.
4. Major stake adjustments
Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to drastically reduce its massive Apple stake by approximately 50% sent shockwaves through the market. This move by Warren Buffett’s conglomerate, which now boasts a record-breaking cash hoard of USD 277 billion, sparked concerns among investors. Many interpreted this as a potential loss of confidence in the overall stock market, even from the legendary investor himself.
Regional impacts
The impact of the market collapse varied across different regions, each experiencing its own set of challenges:
Asia
Japan’s Nikkei 225 experienced a dramatic fall, wiping out all of its gains for the year. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike not only affected the Nikkei but also led to significant declines in other Asian markets. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s TAIEX saw some of their worst performances in decades, driven by substantial drops in semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and TSMC.
Australia
The ASX 200’s decline was led by losses in IT stocks, although the country’s strong commodity sector helped cushion the blow somewhat. Major mining companies like BHP and Rio Tinto saw relatively smaller declines, indicating a degree of resilience in the face of broader market turmoil.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies also took a hit. Bitcoin lost 19% of its value since Friday, crashing below USD 50,000. This decline reflected a broader risk-off sentiment gripping the markets, as investors moved away from volatile assets.
Broader economic concerns
The market collapse has reignited fears of a global recession, driven by differing central bank strategies. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% to tackle inflation, while the Federal Reserve chose not to cut rates, adding to global uncertainty and volatility.
Geopolitical tensions have also heightened investor anxiety. Increased conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and its neighbours, have disrupted oil supplies and spiked crude oil prices. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election cycle has become increasingly unpredictable, with key candidates presenting conflicting economic policies. These factors, combined with existing economic weaknesses, have created a turbulent environment for the markets.
What it means for traders
For traders, the market downturn can be both daunting and confusing. Here are some practical steps to navigate these uncertain times:
1. Immediate actions: Avoid panic selling. It’s important not to make hasty decisions based on short-term market movements. Instead, reassess your portfolio and consider whether your current investments align with your long-term financial goals.
2. Long-term strategies: Diversification is key. Ensure that your portfolio is diversified across different asset classes to spread risk. Focus on value investments and maintain a balanced portfolio to withstand market volatility.
3. Opportunities and risks: Market downturns can present buying opportunities. If you have a long-term investment horizon, consider taking advantage of lower prices to buy quality stocks at a discount. Be cautious and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. For up-to-date insights and analysis that can help you navigate these market conditions, consult VT Markets’ daily market reports.
Conclusion
The 2024 global stock market downturn has undoubtedly created a challenging environment for investors. However, by understanding the factors that led to this downturn and adopting a strategic approach, traders can navigate these turbulent times. Stay informed, remain patient, and focus on long-term investment strategies to weather the storm and potentially benefit from the eventual market recovery.
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Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Imagine the market as a bustling red carpet event, where every asset is a celebrity and every trader a paparazzi. Cameras flash, and eyes dart, seeking the hottest stars – the trends. In this fast-paced world, trend trading emerges as a strategy that not only keeps up with the glamour but also reaps the rewards of being in the right place at the right time.
Trend trading, akin to snapping a perfect photo of a celebrity at their peak, involves identifying and riding market trends.
The allure is undeniable: A trend trader follows the momentum of the market, capturing gains as the asset price moves in a consistent direction.
What is trend trading?
Trend trading is a strategy that involves analysing the price momentum of an asset in one direction – either up or down – and making trades based on the perceived continuation of this trend.
This approach capitalises on the idea that “the trend is your friend,” allowing traders to ride the waves of market movements.
Traders use various tools and indicators to identify trends, such as moving averages, trendlines, and momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
These tools help in pinpointing the start and end of a trend, ensuring traders can enter and exit positions at optimal points.
The tools of the trade
Just like how a paparazzi needs a good camera, a trend trader requires specific tools to spot and follow trends. Here are some key instruments in the arsenal of a trend trader:
Moving averages
Moving averages smooth out price data to help identify the direction of a trend. The two most commonly used types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Traders often use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to gauge the overall trend.
Trend lines
Drawing trend lines on a chart helps traders visually identify the direction of the trend. An upward trend line is drawn by connecting the successive higher lows, while a downward trend line connects the lower highs.
Yes. YES. Nuff’ said
Technical indicators
Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands provide additional insights into the strength and potential continuation of a trend.
These tools can signal overbought or oversold conditions, helping traders make informed decisions.
Strategies to be successful in trend trading
Trend trading can be implemented through various trading strategies, each with its unique approach to capturing market movements. Here are some popular ones:
Following the trend
This straightforward strategy involves identifying the direction of the trend and entering trades in the same direction.
For instance, if the market is in an uptrend, traders look for buying opportunities. Conversely, in a downtrend, they seek selling opportunities.
Trade the breakout
Breakout traders look for key levels of support and resistance. When the price breaks through these levels, it often signals the beginning of a new trend.
Traders enter positions as soon as the breakout occurs, aiming to capture the momentum of the new trend.
Make your entry during the pullback
In a trending market, prices often retrace or pull back before continuing in the original direction. Pullback traders wait for these retracements and enter positions at more favourable prices.
This strategy aims to capitalise on temporary price corrections within a trend.
Examples of trend trading
Apple (Symbol: AAPL)
The stock price of Apple has exhibited strong trends over the years. During its meteoric rise from 2009 to 2020, trend traders who entered into buy positions of AAPL when they identified an upward trend and held onto them profited significantly.
By following the trend and avoiding the urge to sell during minor pullbacks, these traders maximised their returns.
Euro vs US dollar (Symbol: EURUSD)
The EURUSD currency pair is one of the most traded in the forex market. Its price movements often exhibit clear trends.
For example, during the period of 2017 to 2018, EURUSD experienced a strong uptrend. Trend traders who recognised this upward momentum and entered buy positions profited as the euro strengthened against the dollar.
The pros and cons of trend trading
Here are the reasons why you should use trend as your friend, and what you should be looking out for when you decide to deploy trend trading as your strategy.
Pros
Simplicity: Trend trading is straightforward and easy to understand.
Profit potential: It allows traders to capitalise on significant market movements.
Flexibility: Can be applied to various markets, including stocks, forex and commodities.
Cons
Market Dependency: Relies heavily on the market trending in a clear direction.
Timing: Requires precise timing for entry and exit to maximise profits and minimise losses.
Volatility: Sudden market reversals can lead to significant losses.
Use trends as your friend as you navigate the financial markets
Trend trading, much like the pursuit of a paparazzi for the perfect shot, requires a keen eye, patience, and the ability to act swiftly. By understanding market trends and employing effective strategies, traders can capture the biggest market movements and turn them into profitable opportunities.
As with any trading strategy, continuous learning and adaptation are key to long-term success. Explore 1000+ assets being offered by VT Markets and tart your financial trading journey today!
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