Midweek trading on Wednesday, 25 September 2024, will be marked by a mix of economic data releases and ongoing market reactions to central bank policies. With inflation concerns still in the spotlight and global growth dynamics shifting, investors will closely monitor key events to gauge the outlook for the rest of the month.
KEY INDICATORS
UK inflation data (August CPI)
The UK will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which will be key for assessing inflationary pressures in the British economy.
Elevated inflation would likely increase pressure on the Bank of England to maintain a hawkish stance, potentially leading to another rate hike.
A higher-than-expected CPI could affect the pound and U.K. equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rate changes.
Oil price movements
Crude oil prices have been in the spotlight due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors, and they will continue to play a crucial role in market dynamics.
Rising oil prices could further stoke inflation fears, particularly in energy-dependent sectors.
Any new developments from OPEC+ or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions could create volatility in energy markets and impact broader equity indices.
MARKET MOVERS
Nasdaq 100
Long holding preference Long positions above 20038.86 with targets at 20168.12 & 20277.87 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 19816.91 look for further downside with 19760.82 & 19669.02 targets. A support base at 20038.86 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
S&P 500
Potential long preference Long positions above 5749.39 with targets at 5760.56 & 5774.66 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 5731.10 look for further downside with 5724.10 & 5711.05 as targets. Contracts on the S&P 500 were steady after the benchmark hit its 41st record close this year on Tuesday.
Crude oil (WTI)
Potential short preference Short positions below 69.99 with targets at 69.55 & 69.23 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 71.00 look for further upside with 71.55 & 72.04 as targets. Crude is struggling to maintain upward momentum after hitting key resistance at USD 72.21 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near USD 73.01.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
OPEC is highly bullish on long-term oil demand growth. Not everyone agrees
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries published its World Oil Outlook for 2024, forecasting robust global oil demand growth as far ahead as 2050.
It also forecasts “robust medium-term growth” in oil demand reaching 112.3 million barrels per day in 2029, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per day compared to 2023.
Lower global demand forecasts, coupled with new oil supply coming from non-OPEC countries, suggest a long period of subdued crude prices.
Euro firms against dollar, yuan jumps on China’s stimulus boost
The euro rose slightly against the dollar on Wednesday while the yuan hit its strongest level in over a year.
The euro gained 0.06% to USD 1.1187, moving back towards a 13-month peak of USD 1.1201 hit in August.
The kiwi rose to a nine-month top of USD 0.63555, before declining to USD 0.6318.
Markets are now pricing in a 59.1% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next policy meeting, up from just 37% a week ago.
Gold scales record peak on bets of another big Fed rate cut
Spot gold was steady at USD 2,655.35 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of USD 2,670.43 earlier.
