To provide a favorable trading environment to our clients, VT Markets will modify the trading setting of all share CFDs on Oct 14, 2024:
1. All US Shares products leverage will be adjusted to 20:1.
2. MT5 All Shares products: New positions opened within 30 minutes before market closing and after market opening will start with a leverage of 5:1. After the mentioned period, the leverage will be resumed to original leverage and will not be adjusted back to 5:1.
MT4 will not be affected.
The above data is for reference only; please refer to the MT4 and MT5 software for specific data.
Friendly reminders:
1. All specifications for Shares CFD stay the same except leverage during the mentioned period.
2. The margin requirement of the trade may be affected by this adjustment. Please make sure the funds in your account are sufficient to hold the position before this adjustment.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
As of October 2024, the oil market remains highly volatile, with Brent crude futures dipping 0.8% to USD 76.58 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 0.5% at USD 73.24 per barrel. These fluctuations reflect a delicate balance of supply, demand, and economic uncertainty, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a weak global economic outlook.
Recent swings in the market, such as a sharp increase in US crude inventories by 5.8 million barrels—far exceeding the expected 2 million—have placed downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production strategies and escalating Middle East tensions have fuelled price instability.
In this dynamic environment, understanding the forces behind these price movements is crucial for traders looking to navigate the market. This article delves into the latest trends, key factors influencing oil prices, and what lies ahead.
Factors influencing oil prices
Understanding the key drivers of oil prices is essential for any trader. On the supply side, OPEC+ production decisions remain a critical factor. The group’s recent agreement to delay a planned oil output increase of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) has provided some support to prices. However, growing production from non-OPEC countries is putting downward pressure on prices.
Demand-side factors are equally important. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has downgraded its demand forecast for 2025 due to weakening economic activity in China and North America. This has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market.
Geopolitical tensions, especially in the oil-rich Middle East, can cause rapid price movements. Speculation of a strike on Iran is estimated to be worth about USD 5 a barrel in the current market price. Natural disasters, like hurricanes affecting US oil infrastructure, can also disrupt supply and impact prices. For example, Hurricane Milton’s approach to Florida caused about a quarter of fuel stations to sell out of supplies, temporarily supporting crude prices.
Lastly, market speculation and positioning play a crucial role. Currently, there’s a record number of short positions in the market, which could lead to price volatility if these positions are unwound rapidly.
Oil price forecasts
Looking ahead, oil price forecasts for 2025 vary. Citi expects prices to average around USD 60 per barrel if no further OPEC+ cuts are made. Traders from Gunvor and Trafigura foresee a range of USD 60-70 per barrel, mainly due to weak demand from China and global oversupply.
However, UBS projects Brent could rise above USD 80 per barrel, citing tight supply despite lower demand from China. These mixed forecasts reflect ongoing uncertainty, with institutions like the EIA predicting US oil demand at 20.5 million bpd in 2025, slightly below earlier expectations. OPEC and IEA forecasts also show divergence, highlighting the unpredictability of market conditions.
Supply and demand dynamics
Global oil production has reached record highs. The IEA estimates supply will grow by 770,000 bpd this year, reaching a total of 103 million bpd, with further growth expected in 2025. Leading producers like the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil are driving this increase. Additionally, spare production capacity, particularly in the Middle East, adds potential for further supply if needed, potentially putting more pressure on prices.
While oil consumption continues to rise globally, the demand outlook varies by region. Asia’s emerging economies are leading the increase in demand, but long-term growth could be constrained by the shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy, limiting oil’s future demand growth.
Practical tips
1. Stay informed about OPEC+ decisions: OPEC+ meetings can significantly impact oil prices. Keep track of announcements regarding production levels to anticipate market movements.
2. Monitor US crude inventory reports: The weekly reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide insights into supply and demand. Sudden changes in inventory can cause immediate price fluctuations, so be aware of expectations versus actual figures.
3. Use reliable news sources: Follow reputable news outlets to stay updated on geopolitical events and economic developments affecting the oil market. Avoid making decisions based on unverified information or rumours.
4. Utilise technical analysis tools: Leverage tools like moving averages and RSI (Relative Strength Index) to identify potential entry and exit points. This can enhance your ability to make informed trading decisions.
5. Assess your risk tolerance: Understand your risk tolerance and set stop-loss orders to manage potential losses effectively. This helps protect your capital while allowing for participation in the market.
6. Create a trading plan: Develop a clear trading plan outlining your strategies, goals, and risk management rules. This will keep you disciplined and focused.
Implications for traders
The current oil market presents both risks and opportunities. The potential for price volatility means traders need to be vigilant and prepared for rapid market movements. Key indicators to watch include OPEC+ compliance with production quotas, US shale oil production figures, and economic data from major oil-consuming countries.
It’s crucial to remember that oil prices can be influenced by factors beyond simple supply and demand dynamics. Geopolitical events, currency fluctuations, and broader market sentiment can all play a role in price movements.
For instance, the EIA has lowered its forecasts for oil prices, now expecting US crude oil to average around USD 76.91 per barrel in 2024, a 2.4% cut on its prior forecast, while Brent prices are expected to average USD 80.89 per barrel this year, 2.3% lower than the previous forecast.
Conclusion
The oil market remains a challenging but potentially rewarding arena for non-professional traders. By understanding the key factors influencing prices, staying informed about market developments, and adopting a disciplined approach to trading, it is possible to navigate these turbulent waters successfully. Remember, in the world of oil trading, knowledge truly is power.
If you are ready to apply what you have learned, consider opening a live account with VT Markets. Their platform provides the tools and resources to help you trade oil confidently, potentially capitalising on market movements. Success in oil trading comes from continuous learning and careful risk management. Stay informed and trade wisely.
Sydney, Australia, 10 October 2024 – VT Markets, a leading global financial services provider, today announces the launch of its Client Fund Insurance. With a coverage of up to US$1,000,000 for all eligible clients, the initiative is an extension of the award-winning brokerage’s commitment to safeguarding client funds.
The insurance policy will automatically cover both new and existing clients at no additional cost, ensuring enhanced protection for eligible clients in the rare event of financial insolvency.
Key highlights of the insurance policy: • Coverage of up to US$1,000,000 per client. • Automatic application for all eligible clients globally. • No additional cost to clients, comprehensive protection against insolvency risks. • Further solidifies VT Markets’ position as a trusted and transparent broker.
“Our clients’ trust is paramount to us, and this insurance policy is a key step towards reinforcingthat trust,” said Ludovic Moncla, Head of Strategic Operations EMEA of VT Markets. “We wantevery trader on our platform to feel secure, knowing their funds are protected with the higheststandards of security and trust in the financial markets. This initiative is part of our ongoingmission to create the safest possible trading experience.”
VT Markets has earned a strong reputation for its focus on transparency, regulatory compliance, and superior service delivery. The new US$1,000,000 insurance coverage is designed to boost confidence among traders and investors, ensuring that they are well protected as they engage with global financial markets.
VT Markets’ Client Fund Insurance is arranged by Willis Towers Watson and underwritten by syndicates at Lloyd’s of London.
For more information about VT Markets and its new insurance offering, please visit our website or contact our customer support team.
About VT Markets
VT Markets is a regulated multi-asset broker with a presence in over 160 countries as of today. It has earned numerous international accolades including Best Online Trading and Fastest Growing Broker. In line with its mission to make trading accessible to all, VT Markets offers comprehensive access to over 1,000 financial instruments and clients benefit from a seamless trading experience via its award-winning mobile application.
Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. The price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
2. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.
Please refer to the MT4 & MT5 software for the specific maintenance completion and marketing opening time.
Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
El oro ha sido uno de los activos más valiosos y estables a lo largo de la historia, no solo como moneda, sino también como un refugio seguro en tiempos de crisis económicas y políticas. Este metal precioso juega un papel crucial en los mercados financieros globales y es influenciado por una variedad de factores. En este artículo, exploraremos cómo se mueve el mercado del oro, quiénes son los actores que determinan su precio, cuáles son las naciones con mayores reservas y quiénes son los principales vendedores.
¿Qué factores influyen en el precio del oro? El precio del oro se determina principalmente en los mercados financieros internacionales y fluctúa diariamente. Sin embargo, hay una serie de factores clave que influyen en el movimiento del precio del oro:
Oferta y demanda: Como cualquier otro activo, el precio del oro está influenciado por las dinámicas de oferta y demanda. A medida que la demanda aumenta o la oferta disminuye, el precio tiende a subir, y viceversa.
Tasas de interés: Existe una relación inversa entre el oro y las tasas de interés. Cuando las tasas de interés suben, invertir en activos como bonos y depósitos bancarios se vuelve más atractivo, lo que reduce la demanda de oro. Por el contrario, cuando las tasas de interés bajan, los inversores buscan refugio en el oro, lo que impulsa su precio.
Inflación: El oro es considerado una protección contra la inflación. Cuando la inflación es alta, el valor del dinero tiende a disminuir, pero el valor del oro suele mantenerse o incluso aumentar. Esto hace que los inversores recurran al oro como refugio, incrementando su demanda.
Factores geopolíticos: Los conflictos políticos y las crisis económicas también tienen un impacto significativo en el precio del oro. Durante períodos de inestabilidad, los inversores prefieren activos seguros como el oro, lo que tiende a aumentar su precio.
Dólar estadounidense: Como el oro se cotiza en dólares, el valor del dólar influye directamente en su precio. Cuando el dólar se debilita, el precio del oro tiende a subir, ya que se vuelve más barato para los compradores que usan otras monedas.
¿Quiénes definen los precios del oro? El precio del oro se determina principalmente a través de la interacción de compradores y vendedores en mercados financieros globales. Sin embargo, existen algunas entidades clave que influyen directamente en la fijación de precios:
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA): La LBMA es el mercado principal para el comercio de oro físico. El precio de referencia del oro, conocido como el “London Gold Fixing”, es establecido dos veces al día por un grupo de bancos miembros de la LBMA, entre ellos, HSBC, JP Morgan y Scotiabank. Este precio sirve como referencia para las transacciones de oro en todo el mundo.
Mercados de futuros: Además del mercado físico, los mercados de futuros como el COMEX (parte del Chicago Mercantile Exchange) juegan un papel crucial en la fijación de precios. En estos mercados, los contratos de futuros permiten a los inversores especular sobre el precio futuro del oro, lo que afecta el precio actual.
Bancos centrales: Los bancos centrales de muchos países son importantes actores en el mercado del oro, ya que mantienen grandes reservas y, a veces, intervienen comprando o vendiendo oro para influir en su valor o estabilizar sus monedas nacionales.
¿Quiénes poseen las mayores reservas de oro? Los países con mayores reservas de oro tienden a ser economías grandes y desarrolladas, que utilizan el oro como un activo de respaldo para sus monedas y como reserva de valor. A continuación, se muestran los principales tenedores de reservas de oro a nivel mundial:
Estados Unidos: Con más de 8,100 toneladas métricas de oro, EE.UU. es el país con las mayores reservas de oro del mundo. Estas reservas están almacenadas principalmente en Fort Knox y otras instalaciones seguras.
Alemania: El país europeo posee más de 3,300 toneladas métricas de oro. Gran parte de sus reservas fueron repatriadas en los últimos años desde Francia y Estados Unidos.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI): Aunque no es un país, el FMI mantiene alrededor de 2,800 toneladas métricas de oro en sus reservas para estabilizar el sistema financiero global.
Italia y Francia: Ambos países europeos tienen reservas cercanas a las 2,400 toneladas métricas, colocándose entre los mayores tenedores de oro del mundo.
¿Quiénes son los principales productores y vendedores de oro? Aparte de los países que tienen grandes reservas, los principales productores de oro son aquellos que extraen y venden este metal precioso en los mercados globales. Los principales países productores de oro son:
China: China ha sido el mayor productor de oro durante más de una década. En 2023, produjo aproximadamente 370 toneladas métricas de oro. Aunque produce gran cantidad de oro, gran parte de la producción se queda en el país, ya que el gobierno de China es un gran comprador para aumentar sus reservas.
Australia: Con una producción anual de más de 320 toneladas métricas, Australia es otro actor clave en el mercado mundial del oro. Su industria minera es una de las más importantes en su economía.
Rusia: Rusia es otro gran productor de oro, con una producción anual de más de 300 toneladas métricas. El país también ha estado aumentando sus reservas de oro en los últimos años, en parte para reducir su dependencia del dólar estadounidense.
Sudáfrica: Aunque la producción ha disminuido en las últimas décadas, Sudáfrica sigue siendo uno de los principales productores de oro del mundo. En su apogeo, fue el mayor productor de oro global, pero ha sido superado por otras naciones.
En cuanto a los principales vendedores de oro, además de las empresas mineras que venden en los mercados internacionales, muchos países venden oro para equilibrar sus balanzas fiscales o estabilizar sus monedas. Rusia y Venezuela, por ejemplo, han vendido parte de sus reservas en los últimos años para obtener liquidez.
Cuando operas oro en CFDs en particular con el símbolo XAUUSD debes tener en cuenta los siguientes datos:
Valor del pip: $10usd Margen: Depende del tipo de cuenta Movimiento de pips promedio por día: 150 pips Mejores indicadores de apoyo: ATR, ADX, Medias móviles.
Conclusión El mercado del oro es complejo y está influenciado por una amplia gama de factores que incluyen las tasas de interés, la inflación, la estabilidad geopolítica y el valor del dólar. Los precios del oro se fijan en mercados internacionales como la LBMA y los mercados de futuros, y son influenciados por grandes actores como los bancos centrales. Países como Estados Unidos, Alemania y el FMI tienen las mayores reservas, mientras que China, Australia y Rusia lideran la producción mundial. El oro sigue siendo un activo de gran relevancia, tanto para los inversores como para los gobiernos, como una forma de protegerse ante incertidumbres económicas y políticas.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume”.
Please refer to the table below for more details:
The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
New contracts will automatically be rolled over as follows:
Please note:
• The rollover will be automatic, and any existing open positions will remain open.
• Positions that are open on the expiration date will be adjusted via a rollover charge or credit to reflect the price difference between the expiring and new contracts.
• To avoid CFD rollovers, clients can choose to close any open CFD positions prior to the expiration date.
• Please ensure that all take-profit and stop-loss settings are adjusted before the rollover occurs.
• All internal transfers for accounts under the same name will be prohibited during the first and last 30 minutes of the trading hours on the rollover dates.
If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact info@vtmarkets.com.
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