February 28, 2024
CURRENCIES:
Key Highlights:
- The US dollar shows uncertainty with market anticipation of pivotal US data.
- Core PCE data release on Thursday is in the spotlight, influencing investor focus.
- Analysis includes a detailed technical perspective on EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.
Trading Opportunities:
- Diego Colman recommends checking the free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast.
Market Dynamics and Predictions:
- The US dollar’s movement was minimal, with mixed responses from US Treasury yields.
- Market participants are cautious, waiting for the core PCE deflator data.
- Expected January core PCE rise of 0.4% month-on-month, with a slight decrease in the annual rate from 2.9% to 2.8%.
Inflation and Interest Rates:
- Concerns of higher than expected CPI and PPI could mirror in the PCE report, affecting inflation expectations.
- A higher inflation figure may delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, impacting bond yields and potentially strengthening the US dollar.
STOCK MARKET:
- Wall Street’s optimism grows as the S&P 500 exceeds 5,000 points, with strategists predicting a quicker climb to the next 1,000 points.
- Barclays raises its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,300, up from 4,800, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and a robust US economy.
Bull Case Scenario:
- Barclays suggests a potential rise to 6,050 for the S&P 500 if Big Tech’s earnings outshine expectations.
- The analysis sees a tilt toward bullish outcomes, forecasting economic growth over a mild recession.
Key Factors:
- Continued success in Big Tech and a rebound in other sectors’ earnings could propel the S&P 500 to new heights.
- Krishna from Barclays anticipates the S&P 500 could reach 6,050, based on $252 earnings per share.
Similar Predictions:
- Capital Economics and Yardeni Research share optimistic views, with targets of 6,000 by 2025 and 6,500 by 2026 respectively.
- Ed Yardeni emphasizes the US economy’s productivity growth and tech advancements as major drivers.
Market Attractiveness:
- The US market’s standout performance, especially compared to China, is highlighted as a key investment allure.
- Yardeni stresses the role of productivity and technological innovation in fuelling market gains.
AI’s Impact and Bubble Dynamics:
- John Higgins of Capital Economics links the S&P 500’s potential to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025 to the AI technology bubble.
- The current market bubble, driven by AI, is likened to the dot-com era but with significant room for growth
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